Modern global oil market under stress: system dynamics and scenarios

Modelling techniques developed 40 years ago to gain insight into the issues of energy supply security remain powerful even as focus technology policy analysis has shifted consider new problems and use research methods more closely linked pressing environmental challenges. Dynamic modelling continues be merit indeed it potential provide helpful perspectives on contemporary such climate change transition net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. This study seeks help revive system dynamics (SD) global oil market. The SD-based used in this paper facilitates a rational representation physical stocks flows well causal linkages that drive decision making system. SD provides insights (intuitive counter-intuitive) macro-level non-linear exchanges permits assessment impacts future changes behaviour. model exhibits damped oscillations prices, broadly consistent with real market behaviours. results further illustrate resilience phase extreme supply-side shocks reveal ability simulate effects beyond point failure.